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The Rocks Dont Lie Pdf

Unfortunately, much of the political discourse about the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) is counterproductive to good policy. Many of the basic facts are wrong and the arguments. The former without the latter is a political argument, not a policy position. The same goes for airstrikes in Syria and arming the Syrian rebels. It’s a reasonable hypothesis that supporting the Free Syrian Army earlier might have blunted ISIL, but that’s a pretty hollow position if one also gives Syrian rebel factions a pass for tolerating and even embracing ISIL and Jabhat al- Nusrah through late 2. As a long- time analyst of jihadism in the Middle East, it was clear to me in the summer of 2.

Islamic State of Iraq was well- positioned to capitalize on what was then a largely peaceful Syrian protest movement. And it was just as obvious that the group.

The Rocks Dont Lie Pdf

The same should have been obvious to the Syrian rebels, their external supporters, and pretty much anyone interested in the Syrian uprising and the overthrow of Bashar al- Assad. Retired U. S. Pete Mansoor is a serious man, but his assessment that the mission against ISIL will require 1. President has chosen. Reading most of the media coverage over the last few weeks, you.

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But that is not his goal, even considering the coordinated U. Internet Archive Arcade Roms read more. S., Iraqi, and Kurdish effort to retake the Mosul Dam from ISIL.

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It is fair to criticize the President. That distinction makes a difference, because as Doug Ollivant and Ken Pollack have both pointed out, airpower is much more effective against an army massing for an offensive than on troops settling in to govern in urban areas. The larger problem with Mansoor’s vision is that “rolling back” ISIL is an unstable and untenable policy at this time. The Islamic State is a threat to U. S. And so a policy of pushing them into a smaller box does not solve the problem; it is a temporary fix, an open- ended commitment, an invitation for mission creep, or all of the above.

The Rocks Dont Lie Pdf

If destroying ISIL becomes the near- term policy goal. ISIL is an inherently resilient organization. And many of the arguments made about ISIL, Syria, and Iraq these days are spurious . Obama recognizes his critics are, intentionally and unintentionally, trying to back him into mission creep and he intends to avoid that outcome. As a result, he does less than he should (and maybe would) if he could manage the domestic politics and the U. S. Whatever Obama’s mistakes, it is hard to blame him for being gun- shy politically after watching the Benghazi shenanigans for two years. And no one will, because none exists.

But that has not prevented a slew of hacks and wonks from suggesting grandiose policy goals without paying serious attention to the costs of implementation and the fragility of the U. S. Although ISIL has some characteristics of a state now, it still has the resilience of an ideologically motivated terrorist organization that will survive and perhaps even thrive in the face of setbacks. We must never again make the mistake that we made in 2. Bombing ISIL will not destroy it. Giving the Kurds sniper rifles or artillery will not destroy it.

A new prime minister in Iraq will not destroy it. Please do not step in here with the fly- paper argument: that the conflict will attract the world. Notice that no authorities on jihadism ever make this argument.

That is because they understand that war makes the jihadist movement stronger, even in the face of major tactical and operational defeats. The conflicts in Syria and Iraq strengthen ISIL because war is the only force terrible enough to hold together a broad and extreme enough Sunni coalition to be amenable to ISIL.

The concept was sound so far as brutal jihadi strategies go, but Zarqawi. Zarqawi picked a fight he could not win. At the same time, he was moving into Sunni turf and infringing on tribal prerogatives. This had the effect of alienating his would- be allies. But the balance has shifted. ISIL has more strength than al Qaeda in Iraq ever did and its enemies on the ground are weaker.

Without war, ISIL is a fringe terrorist organization. With war, it is a state. So long as it exists, the Islamic State’s borders will always be bloody. This is where I am supposed to advocate a brilliant strategy to defeat ISIL by Christmas at some surprisingly reasonable cost. The cost to defeat ISIL would be very high and would require a multi- year commitment. I wish, very much, that the United States had taken ISIL and its predecessors more seriously after the Surge in 2. In a post- Benghazi world, looking toward the 2.

Presidential election, the political consensus to incur the risks and costs of destroying ISIL is tremendously unlikely. And even then, success hinges on dramatic political shifts in both Iraq and Syria that under the best of circumstances will require years. War is a matter of matching ends, ways, and means . It would therefore be irresponsible to support a policy that would require a level of commitment that our political institutions do not possess.